For decision makers, assessing the number of jobs related to the development of the ocean energy sector was of utmost importance. This information helped motivate governments, corporations, and agencies to further support the sector by providing credible and unbiased evidence on the sensitive issue of job creation. Various roadmaps had presented figures for the 2025, 2030, and even 2050 horizons; however, in the intervening years, numerous ocean energy technologies were designed and tested, and some were implemented in pilot farms. The Task therefore focused on assessing an accurate total number of existing jobs directly related to the sector. It also validated an approach to assess job creation in the sector and updated projections for the 2030/2050 horizons.
An attempt to estimate job creation in OES member countries was based on a combination of both approaches, using finely tuned models supported by the necessary preliminary field data collected through polling. Although all countries were considered within the scope of the study, it was pragmatic to involve only a few at the beginning of the process (e.g., for comparing field data and models), namely those where ocean energy activities had become significant through the implementation of several technology demonstrators and the first pilot plants.
A direct added value from using models in this job-creation assessment was the increased credibility of the extrapolations: job-creation values for the 2030 and 2050 horizons were estimated using the validated modelling approach.
Under this project, a methodology and quantified job-creation figures were developed.
Task 1: A state of the art of the available models was prepared, their respective advantages and limitations were assessed, and the required input data were identified, recognising that these could differ from one country to another.
Task 2: Field data were collected (sometimes at national level, sometimes restricted to a region through local economic development agencies, or spanning a group of countries such as the European Union).
Task 3: The number of volunteering countries was increased. The model was fine-tuned and run using the necessary input parameters collected locally, producing a global statistic. Extrapolations were enabled by forecasting a portion of the model input parameters for the 2030 (#1 priority) and 2050 horizons, with all economic assumptions clearly explained to support these projections. Before running the model, the deployment scenarios were approved by the Executive Committee of the OES TCP. The model was then run to produce projected global job-creation figures for the 2030 and 2050 horizons.
In 2019, a state-of-the-art review of socio-economic methodologies used to assess the number of jobs created or maintained through the commercial deployment of ocean energy systems was prepared. Identifying economic activities related to ocean energy systems was recognised as complex. In addition to capturing the existing economic contribution of renewable energy activities, there was also a need to quantify future impacts. Because projections and forecasts were widely produced and used to inform policy decisions, their accuracy was important.
Different approaches were used to calculate projected impacts, so reviewing existing methods before producing further quantitative estimates was essential. The methodology developed provided results that depended on the approach applied. As different methods were likely to yield different outcomes, it was important that the chosen method was robust, transparent for users, and that policymakers and analysts were aware of its limitations. This ensured decisions on ocean energy were informed by the strongest available evidence base.
